The Local and National Real Estate Market Trends You Need to Know About

In our Top Agent Insights Home Seller’s Report we found out that the biggest reason a sale might fall through is inaccurately pricing your home. It’s no joke. Price your home poorly and you could lose the sale. The primary reason homeowners priced incorrectly? Misunderstanding their real estate market conditions.

There are national and local real estate market trends you and your real estate agent should use to price your home correctly. To arm you with the best information and turn you into an informed home seller, we created the most comprehensive playbook on what real estate market trends to follow and how to use them as you and your real estate agent work out the price of your home.

National Real Estate Market Trends

• National Interest Rates
• Mortgage Availability
• National Legislation and Political Appointees
• State of the U.S. Economy
• Consumer Confidence
• 18-Year Real Estate Cycle

Local Real Estate Market Trends

• Absorption Rate
• School Quality
• New Housing Developments
• Job Creation
• Distance to Shopping & Entertainment
• Barriers to Future Development
• Demographic Changes
• Local Legislation

National Real Estate Market Trends to Know

“It’s like the weather report, you get a general idea from the Today Show, but you really need to listen to your local channel to find out what’s going on in your own backyard.” – Pat Tasker

Pat Tasker, a 28-year veteran and top real estate agent in Milwaukee, Wisc. suggests that while they might not be the end all, be all, the national real estate market trends are a good place to start when digging into the realities you’ll face when you go to sell your home.

There are a lot of national market trends to look at but there are only 5 of them that have a tangible impact on the value of your home.

Here are the national real estate market trends you should pay attention to.

National Interest Rates

Impact on the real estate market
Even though there are lots of discussions when the Fed raises interest rates, long-term mortgage rates aren’t directly controlled by the Fed. Make no mistake, the “tone” of the Fed’s policy statement about raising interest rates does infect mortgage behavior, even when it’s a modest .25% as it was in December 2016. Since we have experienced historically low-interest rates since the financial crisis, everyone knows there is only one way for them to go: UP!

“We anticipate that rates may be 4.5 percent by the end of 2017,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). People who locked into these low mortgage rates will face higher mortgage rates when they purchase a new home, which could make them choose to stay in their home.

Where do you get info on the national interest rates?

• MarketWatch
• Bankrate

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
While the market is still favorable to homebuyers, it’s more attractive to home sellers who will cash in on increased prices. Since the predictions are for the rates to continue to climb, houses will move fast when first-time homebuyers are pressured to jump in to avoid higher interest rates that we all know are coming.

According to the NAR profile of homebuyers and sellers, the desire of people to own a home is increasing and first-time homebuyers reached a 34% share, the highest it’s been in more than four years.
And surprise, surprise. Looks like many millennials are ready to bid adieu to their parents’ abodes and jump into home ownership. As Pat explains, if the interest rate goes up by just .5%, someone who previously qualified for a $250K loan, will only qualify for $230K.

Mortgage Availability

Impact on the real estate market
If you lend it, they will buy.

But when financial institutions become too risk-averse, they tighten up the availability of mortgages leaving many borrowers, especially those with credit scores lower than 700, out of luck. If buyers can’t get the loans they need to purchase their first-time or dream home, sellers also find themselves out of luck.

“Mortgage credit availability increased for the fifth consecutive month in January, driven by increased availability of jumbo loan programs,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.
Where do you get info on mortgage availability?

• Mortgage Bankers Association
• National Mortgage News
• Housing Wire

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
When you understand the realities of mortgage lending, it will prepare you for what types of buyers will be available to purchase your home. In a tight market, many buyers might need to get an FHA loan, and those loans do require that homes meet certain conditions. As a seller, you need to ensure your home meets these requirements to be eligible for FHA-loan buyers.

National Legislation and Political Appointees

Impact on the real estate market
There’s no doubt the uncertainties of new political leaders have an impact on the national housing market. Sometimes the impact can stall the market as we wait to see what legislation might be introduced and approved through Congress.

A new presidential appointee to organizations such as the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) might also change the landscape. Even changes to the immigration policy and the Treasury Department could cause the real estate market to react.

A recent study from the National Association of Realtors found that international buyers “purchased $102.6 billion of residential real estate” between April 2015 through March 2016 and international buyers usually purchase more expensive real estate. If policy changes make it more challenging for international buyers to participate in the U.S. real estate market, these numbers will go down.

Where you get info on national legislation

• U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
• Bills in Congress

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
To be fully informed about the potential for your real estate transaction, you must be informed about the possibility for changes due to national legislation and the policies of the new administration. Until new laws and policies are proposed, the only thing that is clear is that much is unclear about the changes we will see.

State of the U.S. Economy

Impact on the real estate market
In general, if the economy is strong, the housing market is too. As the economy slows, it can restrict mortgage availability and therefore drive up the supply of homes on the market. Ultimately, sellers want a stable or strong economy before putting their homes on the market.

Where you can find info on the economy

• Focus Economics
• Bureau of Economic Analysis

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
If you have a choice, don’t put your home on the market when the economy is going south. If you do, time on market will increase and prices will most likely be less than if you put your home on the market when the economy is strong.

Consumer Confidence

Impact on the real estate market
When buyers are optimistic about the future, they are more apt to make big life decisions such as buying a new or additional home. When things are a bit shaky, they hold off on making any big moves until things settle down, because they don’t want to be saddled with a mortgage payment they can’t make. Consumer confidence includes how people feel about the overall economic health of the country as well as their own personal financial situation.

Where you get info on consumer confidence

• Consumer Confidence Index

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
You want to strike and put your house on the market when consumer confidence is high. Considered a leading economic indicator, the consumer confidence index historically has been a good predictor of consumer spending for the next three to six months.

18-Year Real Estate Cycle

Impact on the real estate market
If you study trends in real estate over the years, you will be intrigued by the predictability of the 18-year real estate cycle. In short, history does seem to repeat. Every 18 years you can track the real estate cycle to a peak of sales followed by a downturn. If the theory holds, the next real estate cycle will run to 2028.

How you use it to your advantage as a seller
In this case, timing is everything. Be aware of our current position in the real estate cycle and plan to sell your home when we are solidly heading toward the peak. Keep in mind, big disruptions such as wars can impact the cycle and the timing of the up and downturns can flux a few years in either direction.

Local Real Estate Market Trends to Know

And now to your local report.

Absorption Rate

Milwaukee, Wisc. based realtor Pat Tasker said, “Probably the most important thing in any market at any time—good or bad market—is the absorption rate.”

Impact on the real estate market
Absorption rate is simply how fast homes are selling in your market.

Absorption rate = total homes available on the market divided by the average number of sales per a specific time period. Because the number changes daily, most realtors like to look at a 6-month period.

The higher the rate, the faster homes are selling. Outside of having a crystal ball, realtors use this number to predict sales activity and home prices. Ultimately, it’s a supply and demand thing. Since 2009, appraisers are also required to consider absorption rate trends in their calculation of home values. The market is balanced if the absorption rate is around 6 months.

Where you get info on the absorption rate

• Keeping Current Matters

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
When the absorption rate is high in your market (typically a rate above 20%), it’s a seller’s market. When it falls below 15%, it’s a buyer’s market and homes tend to be on the market for a longer period. Knowing the absorption rate of your market helps you to understand how aggressively you can price your home.

School Quality

Impact on the real estate market
Realtor.com conducted a survey of nearly 1,000 prospective home buyers and 91 percent of the respondents said schools were important to their search. And, nearly 20% would be willing to pay more for a home within in a desirable school district. People with school-age children will sacrifice other important must-haves in a home in favor of getting a home in the school district of their choice. Even for those who don’t have children, houses in high-ranking school districts often have a higher resale value, so it’s important when thinking about selling a few years down the line.

Where you get info on the schools

• National Center for Education Statistics
• Search for stats on the school district in the Board of Education in your home state
• Greatschools.org

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
As a seller, you need to be aware of the quality of the schools nearby. The quality of the schools—either high or low—can impact the marketing of your property and your listing price. Work with your real estate agent to create a strategy that considers the local schools.

New Housing Developments

Impact on the real estate market
If there is a new housing development being built near your neighborhood, it will add to the saturation of the market. If there is high demand and low supply, it might not create an issue. While there are certainly benefits of an established neighborhood such as mature landscaping, many people are attracted to bright, shiny, new construction. If you’re trying to sell an older home, buyers will want to see updates and prices that make it competitive with what they could buy new.

Where you get info on new developments

• Local office of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
• Local economic development offices

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
Emphasize the benefits of the location of your home. Often new construction is further away from city centers simply because that’s the only land available. New homes will often be more expensive than established neighborhoods, and they won’t have the years of construction mess and noise that new developments will.

Job Creation

Impact on the real estate market
Another element in the local economy is the creation of jobs. Those workers need a place to live close to work. When you hear of new contracts or companies expanding to your area, it helps boost the local housing market.

Where you get info on job creation

• Local economic development offices
• Business journals in your area
• Chambers of commerce

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
When you hear of new jobs being created in your area, pay attention. That might be a good signal it’s time to put your house on the market to take advantage of the high housing demands.

Distance to Shopping & Entertainment

Impact on the real estate market
It’s not the first, nor will it be the last time you heard location, location, location when talking real estate. The majority of buyers want to be within a reasonable distance to work, but also to shopping and entertainment venues.

Where you get info on shopping and entertainment venues
While you may be aware of what’s currently available close to your neighborhood, take a look at what might be currently in development by checking in with your local economic development offices and chambers of commerce. The easiest way to find your local economic development office or chamber of commerce is to Google it or go to a directory.

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
Leverage the existing and upcoming retail and entertainment development when marketing your property.

Barriers to Future Development

Impact on the real estate market
If you live in an area where development is stopped due to natural barriers, you just might be sitting on a gold mine. Oceanfront property, anyone?

Where you get info on natural barriers to future development
This one is easy. Look left, right, forward, and back. If you don’t see any available land to build on, you know you’re set. And, of course, your local chamber and county assessor’s office will be able to confirm what permits have been pulled for development.

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
Understanding what’s possible for new construction in your area can help you understand how aggressively you can price based on supply and demand.

Demographic Changes

Impact on the real estate market
If a neighborhood is aging, it’s most likely on the cusp of turning over to new residents within the coming years. Has the demographic stayed the same in the last 10 years or are there substantial differences? How are the houses suited to the new demographic? Are there a lot of empty nesters who no longer need a 4-bedroom, 3-bath home?

Where you get info on demographics

• Census Bureau
• City planning committees
• Internal Revenue Service

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
Reviewing the data from your demographics research will help you time when to put your house on the market and to understand who to market your home to.

Local Legislation

Impact on the real estate market
Lawmakers and representatives in your state and local governments can propose and pass laws that impact the real estate market.

Where you get info on local legislation

• FindLaw
• Local media
• Minutes or recordings of city council meetings

How you use this to your advantage as a seller
Information about local legislation and changes to laws and taxes at the local level gives you another data point to consider when pricing your home.

Local Real Estate Agents Explain

Even with all this information, the reality is that there is some data that is only available to licensed real estate agents. Real estate agents get an insider’s look at the real estate market trends and help “read between the lines.” A knowledgeable local agent will know the trends of your local marketplace, and help you discern fact from fiction.

“People talk and pump things up. They omit things like they needed to replace the roof or they had to pay $3k in closing costs,” Pat explains. So even though the sale prices of your neighbor’s home might be in the newspaper, there’s typically more to the story than what’s printed.

The information the consumer hears is usually only half the story.

Use the National and Local Real Estate Market Trends to Your Advantage

Before you determine your home sale price and put your house on the market, protect yourself. Remember: Price your home poorly and you could lose the sale. Use this comprehensive guide and work with a top real estate agent to get to know the national and local real estate market trends. Then, you can use this information to your advantage to price your home accurately, know the best time to list and who you will market to.